Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.454392 1.647979 1.853453 2.087331 2.345691 2.621901 2.939052
2025-01-05 1.148070 1.404079 1.693066 2.041773 2.449374 2.908923 3.464335
2025-01-12 0.938216 1.234208 1.588312 2.039281 2.594086 3.249854 4.078684
2025-01-19 0.761414 1.077761 1.478683 2.016810 2.711995 3.570925 4.702343
2025-01-26 0.651409 0.989411 1.441924 2.079801 2.941593 4.049779 5.564149
2025-02-02 0.554124 0.903460 1.397322 2.127562 3.157425 4.532665 6.477435
2025-02-09 0.464902 0.814686 1.337007 2.146646 3.337117 4.985309 7.392761
2025-02-16 0.392587 0.739290 1.285694 2.172238 3.528616 5.471329 8.395574
2025-02-23 0.318230 0.646920 1.195092 2.127384 3.612433 5.812962 9.225349
2025-03-02 0.250479 0.552206 1.086064 2.038951 3.619866 6.043104 9.912656
2025-03-09 0.209096 0.497178 1.035364 2.038801 3.764950 6.490617 10.955414
2025-03-16 0.171378 0.440897 0.973315 2.010712 3.860757 6.868736 11.919826
2025-03-23 0.149128 0.413592 0.964177 2.081577 4.140867 7.578513 13.480625
2025-03-30 0.118114 0.358544 0.891183 2.024634 4.193745 7.924630 14.491949
2025-04-06 0.096600 0.319993 0.845001 2.012763 4.326397 8.415561 15.777135
2025-04-13 0.077787 0.282435 0.793636 1.982916 4.422376 8.851527 17.002935
2025-04-20 0.067320 0.264677 0.784003 2.038601 4.687104 9.603143 18.814485
2025-04-27 0.057649 0.246068 0.768801 2.080201 4.928511 10.331134 20.632749
2025-05-04 0.048292 0.224978 0.743086 2.094496 5.116093 10.974176 22.341999
2025-05-11 0.040721 0.206997 0.721770 2.115888 5.320407 11.662955 24.175413
2025-05-18 0.032306 0.181950 0.675157 2.069059 5.374024 12.067466 25.514566
2025-05-25 0.024496 0.154959 0.615845 1.980342 5.325268 12.267415 26.484844
2025-06-01 0.020136 0.140613 0.591534 1.978270 5.470585 12.862074 28.233062